There is an excellent article at the Washington Post concerning the new primary schedule, that I am ready to call a “must-read.”
I’ve got so much to say about this article that I can barely see straight. I am going to organize my thoughts into labeled subheadings, just to keep everything straight.
A. Who’s Workin’ For Ya?
The change in the primary schedule has cataclysmic implications for the 2008 race. You would expect the major players to each have people in the commission. Well, in fact…
The piece quotes Mike Stratton, who (aside from being a member of the commission reorganizing this thing) is the head of Stratton & Associates, and a major political consultant in the West. He is from my own home state, Colorado, and can you guess who his biggest political client at the moment is?
That’s right!
B. End Times Near For New Hampshire
The most fascinating thing in this piece is that apparently, the earlier schedule is going to include states going before New Hampshire!
I am going to give you a minute to rest, and breathe, and then re-read what I just wrote: before New Hampshire! Let me take a moment to emphasize something on this point, coming directly from the article itself, which is frankly downplayed:
New Hampshire loyalists regard their first-primary status as something close to a divine franchise.
“Something close?” No, Washington Post. I would state it more like this:First Primary:New Hampshire::The Rocky Mountains:Colorado
There is, right outside the statehouse in Concord, a monument to the primary, with every single winner going all the way back from both parties etched in stone, and they update it very faithfully every year. I have been there, and they are not fooling around with this “first primary” stuff.
Now, you can get around that by having caucuses before the NH primary. Iowa has one, for example. But I’m not sure that’s likely to fly. New Hampshire is technically second, but they deal with that by saying “well, we’re the first primary.” But if they’re fourth or fifth, preceded by a bunch of “causes” in other states, New Hampshirites are going to be… well… pissed!
Does this have implications for the general election? Yes! New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, was won by Kerry, but very narrowly (and lost by Gore in 2000, mostly because of Ralph Nader). I’m not saying we should keep the primary schedule the same just for New Hampshire, I’m saying we should get someone to break it to the state delicately.
But now we get to the important part:
C. What Does This Mean For the West, and Gov. Richardson?
And, of course, there is the now-conventional wisdom rounding out the piece:
Adding a Western state with a significant Hispanic population and a Southern state with a strong black voting presence would satisfy both criteria [geographic and racial diversity], and may be the compromise solution forwarded by the commission.
Here is the situation, then.On February 5th, 2008, Utah and New Mexico will attempt to hold their primary, along with Arizona. This is the initiative of Govs. Richardson and Huntsman. Other states in the mountain West are “actively discussing” joining that coalition; Nevada only does theirs about a week and a half later, for example, so it would make sense to move up.
But that isn’t what’s being discussed in the WaPo article. What’s being discussed is a Western state having a primary even earlier, in January. If both things come true (and they may not), it is a true boon to the entire West and to Gov. Richardson certainly.
On the “Colorado vs. Nevada” question: I still don’t see it happening in Nevada. Las Vegas and Reno aren’t exactly my idea of “retail politics!” The advantage Nevada does have is that it is a traditional caucus state, which would fit with this “don’t piss off New Hampshire” theme. Then again, Colorado could always just switch to a caucus too–small price to pay!
I’ve got a lot more information on the Western Primary in the last week or so that I want to digest; I’m going to set forward an argument in more depth about why it’s very important to have, but it seems that there is going to be at least one Western state added to the very early primary schedule no matter what. This is good.